Have we finally reached ‘peak meat’ consumption?
There is a light at the end of the tunnel when it comes to that elusive decline in total meat consumption, but only in countries reaching a certain level of economic growth, according to a new study out this week.
A study by researchers in Australia, published in the journal MDPI, analysed the meat and poultry consumption of 35 countries to determine trends over the last two decades, from 2000 to 2019 specifically.
While overall red meat and poultry consumption has increased in most countries, scientists believe peak consumption has been reached in some. The crucial factor, they say, is a certain level of prosperity - around $40,000 GDP per capita - the gross domestic product of a country divided by its population - after which point total meat consumption decreases as consumers wise up to the impact of animal agriculture on the climate, animal welfare and human health.
If the $40,000 GDP per capita tipping point holds true, there are around 30 countries that have reached ‘peak meat’, including the UK, Australia, the US, Qatar and Israel.
“Whilst eating is a personal choice, subject to access, availability, and affordability, the implications for the common resources of land, air, water, biodiversity, and climate are proportionately greater than those of energy, transportation, buildings, and any other industry over a 20-year horizon,” said the authors of the study. “We hypothesised that this is inducing a shift towards less meat consumption.”
In other words, consumers who understand the issues driving the climate crisis and declining public health, and who also have access to affordable alternatives and information, are increasingly choosing plant-based options over meat.
In reviewing data on beef, veal, poultry, pork, and sheep meat from the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook database, researchers searched for evidence of ‘peak meat’ - the tipping point at which consumption of animal meat peaks followed by a voluntary reduction in consumption.
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Poultry is driving the increase in total meat consumption worldwide due to the belief that it is healthier and more sustainable to eat dead chickens.
“Canada, New Zealand, and Switzerland may have reduced consumption because of the contribution that meat production makes to global warming, reduced food security, animal welfare, and animal ethics,” noted researchers. “It is official government policy to restrict the consumption of animal products in Canada (red meat), New Zealand, and Switzerland.
“However, Canada also has a healthy-eating strategy, and although it makes it clear that changes are needed in saturated fat intake, there is no explicit mention of meat. This may be due to government lobbying.”
Sadly, poultry accounted for the majority of the total global increase in meat consumption over the last two decades, at 14.8kg per capita in 2019 compared with 9.8kg in 2000. Consumption of other types of meat, such as cow, sheep and goat, had decreased overall indicating a widespread switch from red meat to poultry. The researchers theorise that chicken is being seen as a healthy and more sustainable alternative to red meat.
“There is, however, a game-changer emerging in the meat supply-and-demand plot. It relates to non-livestock-based alternatives, such as cultured meat and plant-based alternatives,” the study’s authors wrote.
“While evidence is yet to emerge of these types of meat disrupting the conventional animal-based proteins, analysts predict that cultured meat and the novel vegan meat replacements have the potential to create 60 per cent of the market by 2040. The global plant-based protein market is already growing rapidly and China is likely to become the new frontier for meat substitutes.”
For animal justice campaigners, we can take heart that attitudes towards red meat are changing. But the challenge now, it seems, is to change people’s perception of chicken and other poultry as somehow being the healthier and more environmentally-friendly option. Perhaps it is also time to switch back to a focus on ethics in regards to our advocacy because even if it can be argued that chicken flesh is somehow ‘better’ than cow flesh, unnecessary suffering and death are the inevitable consequences of eating any animal regardless of species.
Andrew Gough is Media and Investigations Manager for Surge.
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